Prices are just as likely to fall in a November as they are to rise. Prices have fallen across the board in five of the past 10 November markets. They did rise in 2012 and 2013 before falling last year. When prices do fall in November they do not tend to the extremes; most decreases over the past decade have been within 10 percent, with the exception of 2008.
The Scrap Trends Outlook indicator number on average for mill factors, which take into account anticipated mill scrap demand plus expected levels of production, orders, mill inventory, home scrap levels and any slowdowns or shutdowns. All of these point to a severe decrease in the need for scrap among buyers in the market, undercutting prices.
The percentage of respondents in this month’s survey who expect prices to fall. An additional 26 percent say prices could be sideways or soft sideways next month. Prime and shredded grades lead the way in expected market declines, with foundry grades also expecting to be weaker. That leaves only 2 percent of respondents looking for an increase.