Prices have fallen across the board in an October market in nine of the past ten years, and 13 of the past 15 years. In only one year –2004 –did prices rise across the board. Last year, prices fell hard in October, with grades losing $40-$50 on average. Both buyers and sellers believe next month will see a down market, or a weak sideways one in the best case.
The percentage of respondents in this month’s survey who expect prices to fall. An additional 21 percent say prices could be sideways or soft sideways next month. Prime and cut grades lead the way in expected market declines, with foundry grades following closely behind. None of the respondents say there could be an October increase.
So far in 2016, scrap exports are running nearly 15 percent behind 2015 levels. Respondents are expressing further pessimism about next month’s exports, which seems to be fueled by a year in which exports overall are still far behind last year plus the fact that shipments began to drop in mid-summer and have yet to show any recovery.