Through April’s market, for the year to date, export tonnages are running about 20 percent behind this time last year, with a total of about 3.5 million tonnes leaving the docks during the first four months of the year. After February rebounded from an historically low January market, exports decreased in both March and April, and possibly May as well.
Most respondents – 91 percent – to the survey expect prices to be down to a soft sideways to sideways in July, while only 9 percent expect to see price increases. P&S and shredded scrap are the weakest grades heading into next month, although there is a little more enthusiasm for the fate of prime grades, which could be sideways.
The Scrap Trends Outlook indicator number for historical pricing. During the past 10 years, prices fell across the board in only three of July markets, including last year. In five of those years, prices rose across the board. But July has been a month in which mixed pricing changes also are likely to occur, fitting in well with this month’s survey results.